Master Asset Management LLC

Hat tip: The Big Picture

Mark Hulbert looks at the question of whether this is a once-in-a-generation stock market low (secular bull market) or a mere "cyclical" low.

To figure out which, he looks to Ned Davis of Ned Davis Research. NDR identified seven factors to determine if any given market low is a secular low, setting up the next lasting Bull Market.

The Seven Factors: There should be:

1. Money, cheap and amply available;
2. Debt structure that's been deflated;
3. Large pent-up demand for goods and services;
4. Stocks that are clearly cheap;
5. Investors who are deeply pessimistic;
6. Major investor groups with below-average stock holdings;
7.[More]

Jeff Macke Confounds Dennis Kneale
7/10/09

Nassim Taleb on CNBC
7/02/09

The importance of the bond market
How the Treasury market affects many parts of our financial lives
5/28/09 9:41 AM

Nationwide job losses by County
4/23/09 2:08 PM
Here is an interesting graphic showing the time/place of our job losses over the last 18 months.

Description of Current Gov't Problems
2/11/09 3:20 PM
I thought this quote from John Jansen's Across the Curve blog describes the issues with our government very well-

Additionally, I think that the Geithner speech yesterday was a seminal moment which revealed the limitations of the new Administration and government in general. There were no innovative proposals. There were no guarantees and there was no nationalization of banks or GSEs. Worst of all there were no details. The only plan was to have a plan.

In short the emperor had no clothes and potentially the financial system could undergo another wave of instability.

Maybe we are at the point at which the market should be allowed to do its own work. Maybe the overhang of government intrusion into the market is delaying the cathartic result. Maybe if the government stayed away, willing buyers and sellers would meet, in a punitive for some, public purging which would lubricate the system.

Ultimately, it seems to me the only solution for the plethora of problems which plague us is a redistribution of positions, such that, new players own them at prices which reflect market reality.[More]

Very Good Video Interview
2/10/09 10:32 PM
This is an excellent interview of Bob Arnott, a money manager with PIMCO.

MAM Trading Information
2/03/09 2:45 PM

I want to be completely transparent with my clients and potential clients, so I have decided to publish a Google document of all of my trades since my recent strategy change.

To review my strategy change: When the market melted down in late 2008, I decided that my investment strategy of being fully invested at all times, trying to find relative value in distinct asset classes had a flaw- what happens if virtually all asset classes collapse at the same time?

We found out what happens in the 4th Quarter of 2008. In late October, I decided to make principal protection my first priority, and I liquidated all but absolute core positions. Since then, I have added a few positions, made a few trades, and to illustrate my desire to be a transparent, effective money manager, I have created this Google document of actual trades for my Growth client's accounts.

I will continue to update and post the document as I make more trades.

Happy Thanksgiving
11/26/08 9:15 PM
First of all, I hope everyone has a happy and safe Thanksgiving tomorrow.

Now, how do we invest from here to protect assets and also grow them for the long term?

Right now, things are still too volatile, in most asset classes to be very aggressively investing in them. I believe that fixed income has declined enough to discount a serious, long recession, while the stock market probably has not priced in much more than a short, steep recession. Therefore, there is more risk in stocks, and bonds are have more downside protection right now.

Warren Buffet has had a good idea, get paid 10% interest, with preferred stock ownership, and warrants to boot. How can we do something like this? The closest thing I can think of is high yield bonds, paying 12-14%, equity type capital gains potential to boot.

For taxable investors, municipal bonds still represent the best investment option, they are less volatile, yielding almost 7% tax free, and extremely undervalued. The spread currently on munis versus treasuries is approaching 200%, normally, it is 85%. Why in the world is anyone investing in US treasuries? The 10 year just dipped under 3%! Treasuries will be the biggest short at some point.[More]

Economic Deterioration
10/31/08 10:55 AM
I am getting more and more cautious on our market and economy. Briefly, here are a few comments from recent corporate conference calls that support my position:

UPS- CEO was quoted on the call saying that September shipments went into a "precipitous decline", just as retailers typically begin stocking up for Christmas gifts.
VISA- Credit Card use has gone negative year-over-year, debit card use is up only single digits, versus double digits previously.
Walmart- Seeing a spike in baby food and formula on paydays. This indicates people are buying the absolute necessities when they get paid.
Walgreens- Seeing people cut back on medicine expenditures, and are not refilling their current prescriptions.

These are just what I have read about or heard through the financial media. I do not think this bodes well for the consumer or our economy. It looks like we are headed into a deep, consumer led recession, which may last much longer than many people think.